Governor’s race taking shape
From Tom Baxter and GONSO:
Maybe it says something about how next year’s governor’s race is shaping up that the early jostling has involved two back surgeries.
The more widely publicized of these was performed, reportedly with good results, this week on Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. He had been viewed as a top contender in the race for the Republican nomination until he announced at a tearful press conference earlier this month that a back problem had convinced him to abandon the governor’s race and run for his current job.
There was so much skepticism about the real reason for Cagle’s departure that he showed his X-rays and MRIs to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jim Galloway as proof he genuinely is in too much pain to take on such a big race. No doubt pain did have a great deal to do with Cagle’s surprise decision, but the timing – a week after the end of the session, long enough to get on the phone and test the climate for political fundraising – suggests money might have had a little to do with it also.
Since Cagle’s departure, the Republican dominos have fallen in a striking pattern. Three potential contenders from the Atlanta metro area – U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens, and state House Speaker Pro Tem Mark Burkhalter – have decided they’re not getting in the governor’s race.
Again, there must be a lot of reasons why they all opted not to get in this race. But a casual glance at the business pages suggests one overriding factor: any campaign that might have counted on Atlanta development money is finding out there’s a lot less of it available in this election cycle. (Not to mention that there are four Republicans already dialing for dollars: Secretary of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, state Rep. Austin Scott of Tifton and states rights advocate Ray McBerry.)
Meanwhile, two candidates from outside metro Atlanta who weren’t on the radar for this race have jumped in it. Senate President Eric Johnson of Savannah switched from the lieutenant governor’s race, thus avoiding the returning Cagle and upping the ante on his own ambitions. U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal, who wasn’t even on the short list of Republican congressmen interested in the race, has also been letting colleagues know he intends to announce soon.
Both add some intriguing dimensions to the race. Johnson has the potential to benefit from the GOP’s growth in eastern Georgia, and he’s already put together an organization. As an up-and-coming legislator and during his first couple of years in Congress, Deal enjoyed a best-and-brightest image in the Democratic Party that reminded some of Roy Barnes. Since his party switch in 1995, Deal has swung more to the right on issues like immigration, and he never really assumed the leadership position in his adopted party which some had envisioned for him as a Democrat. But it will be interesting to see what cross-party appeal he might have next year.
Speaking of Barnes, the other back surgery was the one performed on him back before Christmas of last year. He told a former staffer the week after that operation that he was about 50-50 on getting in the race. If he was 50-50 after going through something like that, Barnes might seem likely to make his fourth bid for governor. But sources who’ve talked with him in recently haven’t seen any signs that he’s committed.
Until he makes his intentions known, which should be some time in May, the Democratic field consists of three people with whom the former governor has important connections: David Poythress, whom Barnes appointed state adjutant general, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, with whom Barnes carefully coordinated his 1998 and 2002 races, and House Minority Leader Dubose Porter, who was a floor leader for Barnes when he was governor. Whether Barnes is in this race or not, he’s going to have a lot to do with how it’s run.
Tom Baxter is editor of the Southern Political Report and senior vice president of its parent company, InsiderAdvantage, a media and polling firm. He was the chief political correspondent at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution for 20 years. [full bio]
Porter declares, Poythress attacks
Fellow Democrat David Poythress responded far more sharply to DuBose Porter’s entry today into the 2010 governor’s race than he did to last week’s announcement by Thurbert Baker. In other words, Poythress considers Porter more of a threat to his own candidacy.
The discrepancy may partly be due to the surprise announcement by Baker, the centrist attorney general for whom political risk truly is a four-letter word. Porter, the state House minority leader, had tipped his hat before throwing it into the ring.
It also makes sense for Poythress (and for that matter Porter) to keep the powder dry against Baker because white candidates don’t want to turn off black voters by attacking the only African-American in the primary. Contrast that to the dynamic between Poythress and Porter, an attorney and newspaper publisher from Dublin with a folksy way about him who will compete for Poythress’ logical base of white, rural, moderate Democrats.
So there’s a certain logic to Poythress going over the top by accusing Porter of “an unforgivable offense” for failing to recruit enough state House candidates last year. Just five days earlier, Poythress uttered nary a nasty word about Baker’s hardy defense of the state voter ID law, which Republicans enacted to make it more difficult for Democratic constituencies to get to the polls.
In his announcement, Porter focused on an issue that may prove a point of for Republican vulnerability: The utter failure of the GOP to deal with metro Atlanta’s transportation problems. The money line: “This year’s lack of leadership on transportation and personal grabs for power at the expense of the people convinced me to throw my hat into the ring.” (Never mind that Porter had already told people he’d intended to run before this year’s legislative session even began.)
Baker won’t make it out of the primary without taking his own hits from Democratic constituencies. He’s vulnerable among his base of black voters for appealing a ruling that would have hastened the freedom of teenage cause celebre Genarlow Wilson, as well as for his support of a bunch of tough cirminal sentencing measures. But don’t expect open attacks on Baker from his opponents: White candidates want to be in a position to snatch up black votes rather than to dirty their hands in the process of prying the votes from Baker.
The dynamic for the Democratic primary changes entirely, of course, if former Gov. Roy Barnes decides to enter the race — as he’s supposedly considering. For now, however, Baker and Porter seem the guys to beat: Baker’s already won three statewide races as attorney general and, despite his record, should get the lion’s share African-American support. Porter’s network among state legislators, lawyers and newspaper people should make him pretty formidable.
Poythress — who’s served off-and-on in various state offices for three decades —seems the odd man out to me, but then again I’ve never quite gotten his candidacy. He’s been running since the Ice Age (well, actually, early last year), and during that time he’s patiently spoken to small groups across the state. But doesn’t he seem a bit too yesterday to lead a Democratic Party revival in 2010? For instance, three of the endorsers listed on his website have the word “former” in front of their titles.
On the Republican side, Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine and state Rep. Austin Scott are already running, while Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens is thinking about it.
Here’s more of Poythress’ attack on Porter:
In his statement Dubose Porter said, ‘ … we must look past the primary and honestly ask who can win a general election.’
It’s ironic he led with this thought when Dubose Porter, as House Minority Leader, is the Democrat who seconded the nomination of Republican Glenn Richardson to become Speaker of the House. He also left 81 House Republicans uncontested in the 2008 elections by not recruiting Democratic challengers. This is an unforgivable offense given the tremendous turnout and historic year for Democrats. And Dubose should tread lightly when talking about his alleged General Election viability especially since Republicans would have a field day over his 26 year voting record in the General Assembly.
And here’s Porter’s full announcement:
After this year’s failure to pass a transportation funding bill by the Republican leadership it has become apparent that if Georgia is to move forward there will have to be a new vision coming from the Governor’s office. Smaller government is good, but not when its goal is to dismantle transportation, law enforcement, and education. These are vital services that must be maintained if Georgia is to move forward with America.
The Governor and his leadership team have used this economic downturn as an excuse to dismantle these fundamental programs; programs on which our entire economy rests. This session we sponsored HB 356 which offered up a way to find an expected $1 billion in uncollected revenue without raising taxes a dime. HB 356 would have implemented a new point of sales policy exactly like Alabama. This Governor and his leadership in the House and Senate chose to turn this money down because it would have funded a lot of the programs they chose to cut. Programs our citizens needed.
The Governor and this leadership were cutting the funding to the QBE funding formula, which goes to our schools, and law enforcement when we had money and now they have added transportation to their list. “This year’s lack of leadership on transportation and their personal grabs for power at the expense of the people convinced me to throw my hat into the ring.”
It is obvious that reduced law enforcement is not a way to grow quality of life, and access to a quality basic education is vital to positive growth. In the immediate future we see job opportunity through services and technology. Our people will have to be able to meet the requirements for these jobs. They also will not be keeping the same job for life, but will have to be able to retrain quickly. Without adequate educational opportunity that will not be possible.
Transportation is another foundation service for government and is a key to a prosperous future. We don’t need to cut MARTA rail to the airport. We need to extend it. The message cutting MARTA, when the money is there, sends potentially damaging signals to future investors in Georgia. We have to start thinking of the future.
My youngest sons, the twins, are now freshmen at UGA and it seems as if this session’s lack of leadership has coincided correctly with my timing for running for state wide office.
I realize a Democrat will have a hard time in what is seen as a red state. However I believe Georgia will look at the issues and if they find a candidate that represents their core values they will be willing to vote for a change in the Governor’s office. My work on the issues will carry me in Atlanta, but according to the pundits from the far right to the far left, it will take a candidate with my core values to connect with those outside of Atlanta.
My district, Laurens and a small part of Johnson County, closely resembles the demographics of the state as a whole. In my last race I won by 76% over a Republican candidate who was a 10-year city council member and a vice president of a bank. I was able to do that because I listen to my people. My t-shirts always read, “DuBose Porter works for me,” because I never forget who sent me. The title is ‘Representative.’ I represent. I listen well. I bring all the people to the table. I learn as much as I can on the topic from all sides and then lead. I remember my Scout Oath. I bring in my faith. I think of the Georgia I want my four sons to live in and I remember our state motto of wisdom, justice and moderation. Listen. Learn. Lead. You aren’t constantly in the press with that style, but it works best to move projects forward if you can lose the ego and share the credit.
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